The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that global temperatures are expected to stay at or near record levels over the next five years, raising serious climate risks. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will break the 2024 heat record, and an 86% chance at least one year will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The five-year average warming for 2025–2029 has a 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C. Arctic warming is predicted to continue at more than three and a half times the global average. Sea ice will likely keep declining in areas like the Barents Sea and Bering Sea. Rainfall patterns are expected to shift, with wetter conditions in places like the Sahel and northern Europe, and drier conditions over the Amazon.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett warned that we are seeing no signs of relief, and each fraction of warming increases risks like heatwaves, droughts, rising seas, and glacier loss. The report underscores the urgent need for climate action and adaptation, especially ahead of the COP30 climate talks where countries will update their climate action plans.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming below 2°C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5°C. Scientists stress that every fraction of a degree matters. The WMO’s data draws from models provided by 15 institutes worldwide, led by the UK Met Office, and is meant to guide policymakers with the latest scientific insights.
