WASHINGTON (AP) A new global climate report warns that by early 2028, humanity will have released enough greenhouse gases to make the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold effectively unavoidable. This alarming prediction comes from a team of 60 international scientists who say the world is nearing a point of no return in its efforts to prevent worsening climate impacts.
According to the Indicators of Global Climate Change report, the world is currently emitting about 46 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually. At that rate, the remaining “carbon budget” just 143 billion more tons will be exhausted by February 2028. Once surpassed, there will be at least a 50% chance that Earth will lock in long-term warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the widely agreed-upon upper limit to avoid catastrophic climate consequences.
Crossing the 1.5°C threshold, scientists caution, would trigger more intense and frequent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and rising sea levels effects that pose grave risks to ecosystems and vulnerable communities, particularly small island nations.
Study co-author Zeke Hausfather of Stripe and Berkeley Earth emphasized the rapid acceleration of climate change, noting that the rate of human-induced warming per decade has risen to 0.27°C. “Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” he said. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction during a critical window for climate action.”
The report, published in Earth System Science Data, also highlights Earth’s growing energy imbalance the widening gap between the solar energy the planet absorbs and the amount it radiates back into space a core indicator of the climate crisis.
The study underscores the urgency of immediate, large-scale emission reductions to prevent locking in long-term warming that could irreversibly alter life on Earth.
