Pakistan’s former foreign secretary, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, has issued a stark warning that India could stage an attack against Pakistan as early as October, urging Islamabad to remain on high alert during the coming weeks.
Speaking on Geo News’ talk show Capital Talk, Chaudhry suggested that New Delhi might attempt to “engineer an incident similar to Pulwama or Pahalgam” — events that India has previously used as justification for military escalation against Pakistan. He cautioned that the timing and nature of such a move would likely be aimed at creating pressure and distraction in the region.
Rising Tensions in 2025
His remarks come at a time when Pakistan-India relations are already under immense strain. Over the past year, the two nuclear-armed neighbors have exchanged sharp rhetoric and witnessed several military-related incidents along their contested borders. Reports of cross-border drone strikes, airspace violations, and renewed artillery fire have fueled concerns of a dangerous escalation.
International outlets like Reuters and The Guardian have also noted the uptick in military posturing on both sides, with security analysts warning that even a small misstep could spiral into a larger conflict.
“October is Critical”
Chaudhry’s warning specifically flagged October as a “sensitive window,” hinting at the possibility of a staged attack or provocation during that period. While he did not cite specific intelligence reports, he pointed to India’s historical pattern of using security incidents as a pretext for military action or political advantage.
“It won’t be surprising if something resembling Pulwama is orchestrated,” he said during the program. “Pakistan must prepare itself diplomatically and militarily, and not be caught off guard.”
Regional Implications
Analysts believe that if Chaudhry’s prediction materializes, the fallout would not only affect Pakistan and India but also regional stability in South Asia. The U.S., China, and Gulf countries have consistently called for restraint, urging both sides to resolve disputes through dialogue rather than confrontation.
What Comes Next
For now, Islamabad has not issued an official response to Chaudhry’s remarks. However, his warning adds to growing unease in diplomatic and security circles. As October approaches, eyes will be firmly fixed on developments along the Line of Control and in India’s internal political landscape, both of which could shape the trajectory of peace — or conflict — in the region.
