LONDON — Despite initial geopolitical forecasts predicting that a direct military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could drive crude oil prices toward $150 or even $200 per barrel due to disruptions in the vital Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets have remained remarkably resilient. While Brent crude futures peaked at $126 per barrel—comfortably below the 2008 all-time high of $147—prices averaged a moderate $101 per barrel between the outbreak of hostilities on February 28 and June 11, 2026, when U.S. President Donald Trump temporarily suspended airstrikes. Prices even briefly retreated to pre-war baselines of $70 per barrel in early July, signaling that structural market buffers have successfully absorbed the geopolitical shockwaves.
Market analysts attribute this containment to several critical macroeconomic cushions. Crucially, China—the world’s premier oil importer—unexpectedly slashed its crude imports to a near decade-low by June, pivoting domestic transport infrastructure toward electric taxis and curbing petrochemical output. Simultaneously, the United States leveraged its status as the world’s leading oil producer to pump a record-breaking 13.93 million barrels per day by April, while coordinating a massive 400-million-barrel supply release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve via the International Energy Agency (IEA). Furthermore, Saudi Arabia mitigated maritime supply blockades by aggressively rerouting its crude exports through its Red Sea Yanbu port, ensuring an ample immediate physical supply that has kept prompt cargo differentials heavily discounted across Europe.
