More than 120 flights between Pakistan and Middle Eastern destinations were cancelled in a single day in early March, and the strain on the country’s aviation sector still hasn’t really eased. What looked at first like a temporary shock has turned into something messier: a mix of regional instability, soaring jet-fuel costs, soft passenger demand and tighter travel conditions on key Gulf routes.
The basic problem for airlines is blunt. Seats are going unsold even after fares were lowered on some routes, while operating costs have climbed hard enough to wipe out the benefit of those price cuts. The Express Tribune reported that domestic return fares on routes such as Lahore-Karachi fell from roughly Rs50,000-70,000 to around Rs30,000-40,000, but passenger traffic still remained weak. Industry sources quoted by the paper said flights were increasingly being cancelled because carriers could not justify operating them with low loads.
That demand slump is especially visible on Pakistan’s Gulf-facing network, long one of the busiest parts of the market. The Nation reported on April 21 that 45 flights were rescheduled or cancelled across major airports, with officials pointing to falling traffic on UAE-bound sectors and low occupancy on routes to cities including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Bahrain, Kuwait and Fujairah. Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi and Peshawar were all affected.
At the same time, airlines are being squeezed from the other side of the ledger. Jet-fuel prices in Pakistan have risen sharply, with industry estimates cited by Profit saying JP-1 climbed from about Rs190 per litre to over Rs450 per litre. Fuel typically makes up 30% to 40% of airline operating costs, which helps explain why carriers have struggled to keep schedules intact even when they have tried to stimulate demand.
Pakistan International Airlines, still in the middle of a restructuring phase after the sale of a 75% stake to a private consortium led by the Arif Habib Group, has already responded by trimming frequencies, suspending some international routes and adding fuel surcharges. Reports say Beijing and Kuala Lumpur services were suspended, parts of the Gulf network were scaled back, and extra charges were imposed on both domestic and international tickets. Analysts cited by Profit estimated overall airfare levels could rise 20% to 30% as airlines attempt to pass through at least some of the fuel shock.
So the contradiction at the heart of the market is pretty clear now. Airlines need fuller planes, but many travellers are holding back. Higher living costs inside Pakistan have weakened purchasing power, while uncertainty around the Gulf and tighter visa issuance, particularly in the UAE, have further reduced outbound travel, according to travel industry representatives quoted by The Express Tribune. In other words, cheaper fares alone aren’t enough when people are either unable or unwilling to travel.
That is why the cancellations keep coming. What began as a disruption tied to regional tensions has turned into a wider commercial problem for airlines operating in and out of Pakistan. Unless fuel costs ease, route stability returns and passenger confidence improves, carriers will likely keep cutting flights where demand simply doesn’t cover the cost of flying them
