RIYADH — Saudi Arabia, Russia, and five other OPEC+ members are expected to announce a modest production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September during their online meeting on Sunday. According to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon, this anticipated hike mirrors similar increases over recent months and is likely to mark the final adjustment in the current series of unwinding production cuts. Between late 2022 and 2023, the expanded oil cartel implemented deep output reductions totaling nearly six million barrels per day to stabilize falling prices, before reversing strategy in 2025 to gradually restore volumes.
Despite the planned quota revisions, energy experts emphasize that actual output gains remain heavily constrained. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that several member states struggle to meet targets due to declining production capacity and infrastructural limitations. Gulf producers face severe export bottlenecks caused by the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East conflict, while Russian extraction hovers around nine million barrels per day—well below its 9.8 million target—following repeated drone attacks on its energy infrastructure. Furthermore, analysts anticipate contentious discussions regarding post-September quotas, compounded by the United Arab Emirates’ formal exit from the group in May to pursue its own national capacity-expansion objectives.
