Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25 today (Monday), offering a comprehensive overview of the country’s economic performance ahead of tomorrow’s federal budget announcement in the National Assembly.
The survey revealed that GDP growth stood at 2.7%, falling short of the government’s target. However, notable progress was made on several fronts, including a significant drop in inflation and a record surge in remittances.
Inflation Eases to Historic Low
The minister reported that inflation averaged 4.6% during the fiscal year, with April 2025 recording an inflation rate of just 0.3%, a multi-decade low. In response to these improvements, the State Bank of Pakistan slashed the policy rate from 22% to 11%, encouraging investment and economic activity.
Remittances Boost Foreign Reserves
Between July 2024 and April 2025, remittance inflows rose by 31%, reaching $31.2 billion, compared to $23.8 billion the previous year. This helped Pakistan achieve a current account surplus of $1.9 billion.
Revenue and Fiscal Balance
Total revenue collection jumped by 36.7% to Rs13.37 trillion, driven by a 26.3% rise in tax revenues and a 68% increase in non-tax revenues. The fiscal deficit was reduced to 2.6% of GDP, while the primary balance posted a surplus of 3%, highlighting improved fiscal discipline.
Agriculture and Industry
The agriculture sector grew marginally by 0.56%, but key crops like maize and rice saw significant declines. Cotton ginning fell by 19%, while livestock and other crops showed moderate growth.
The industrial sector expanded by 4.77%, with strong growth in electricity, gas, and construction. However, Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) contracted by 1.5%, and mining shrank by 3.4%.
Services Sector
The services sector registered a 2.91% growth, with public sector services rising by nearly 10%. Transport, finance, and private services also saw moderate increases.
Trade and External Sector
Exports increased by 6.4% to $26.9 billion, while imports grew by 7.5% to $48.3 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $21.3 billion. However, with strong remittance inflows, the overall current account stayed in surplus. Forex reserves rose to $16.64 billion, and the exchange rate stabilized at Rs278.72 per US dollar.
Social Protection & Education
The government allocated Rs471 billion to the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). Under this, Rs366.9 billion were disbursed to 8.5 million families, with additional support provided through education and health initiatives.
On education, 0.8% of GDP was spent, with literacy rate recorded at 60.6% (68% for men and 52.8% for women). Rs61.1 billion was allocated to higher education, and PhD faculty accounted for 38% of total teaching staff.
Medium-Term Outlook
The minister concluded by stating that Pakistan is on a path of economic recovery, aiming for 5.7% GDP growth over the medium term. He emphasized the importance of continuing structural reforms, especially within the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), to improve long-term sustainability.
