The world is on track to experience record-breaking or near-record global temperatures over the next five years, paving the way for more extreme and potentially deadly weather events. This warning comes from a new joint report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office, two of the leading authorities on climate science.
According to the report, there is now a 70% chance that global temperatures will temporarily rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years. Surpassing this threshold significantly increases the risk of catastrophic climate impacts—including the triggering of irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of ice sheets and the accelerated melting of glaciers, both of which could dramatically raise sea levels.
The report also suggests an 80% probability that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest year ever recorded. For the first time, scientists say there is even a small but real (1%) chance that global temperatures could temporarily exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels—a scenario long viewed as a critical danger zone for the planet.
Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasized the seriousness of the findings:
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Sadly, this latest report offers no indication that the trend will slow down. We are looking at escalating impacts on economies, daily life, ecosystems, and the planet as a whole.”
A global temperature rise of 1.5°C would move the world closer to breaching the core target of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit warming to well below 2°C. For many vulnerable nations, especially small island states, staying below this threshold is considered a matter of survival.The Arctic is warming more than 3.5 times faster than the global average, particularly during its long, dark winters. This accelerated warming fuels further melting of polar ice and contributes to sea-level rise and disrupted weather patterns around the world.
Every additional fraction of a degree in warming increases the likelihood of more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as scorching heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and stronger storms. These phenomena have already been playing out over the past five years, which have brought increasingly severe climate extremes across the globe—from record-breaking heatwaves to deadly floods caused by rapidly intensifying storms like Hurricane Helene.The WMO and Met Office report draws on over 200 simulations run by 15 leading climate institutes worldwide. These five-year forecasts have historically been highly accurate at the global level, though less precise on regional scales.
In 2023, the Earth recorded its hottest year to date, marking the first calendar year to temporarily cross the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement. The trends outlined in the report suggest this is just the beginning of more intense climate challenges to come.
