Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t get the landslide he wanted. The latest numbers from the tally centers show a fractured Knesset, leaving the Likud leader short of the 61 seats needed to rule without a headache. But anyone drafting his political obituary hasn’t been paying attention to the last thirty years of Israeli politics.
Bibi is down, but he’s nowhere near out.
Likud remains the largest single party in the country. That’s his leverage. While his rivals—led by Yair Lapid—celebrate blocking a clear right-wing path, they’re still staring at the same math problem that’s paralyzed Israel for years. There is no easy coalition without Netanyahu, and for many, there’s no coalition with him.
The “So What?” is simple: Israel is likely headed back into the coalition-building trenches where Netanyahu thrives. He’s already working the phones, reaching out to the ultra-Orthodox and the far-right fringes. He doesn’t need a clean win; he just needs to make sure no one else can build a house while he’s still standing on the lot.
His legal troubles don’t help. The ongoing corruption trial means Netanyahu isn’t just fighting for a seat at the head of the table—he’s fighting for his personal freedom. A stint in the opposition doesn’t just mean a loss of power; it means losing the ability to influence the legal system from the top. That makes him the most dangerous man in the room.
The center-left bloc says they’ve saved Israeli democracy. They’re claiming a moral victory. But moral victories don’t pass budgets or command the IDF. Netanyahu knows this. He’s betting that the patchwork “change” coalition—a group that agrees on nothing except their dislike of him—will eventually eat itself.
“The results are clear, but the path isn’t,” said one Likud insider late Tuesday. He wouldn’t go on the record because the strategy is still shifting. “Bibi doesn’t need to be liked right now. He just needs to be inevitable.”
If the rivals can’t find a way to bridge their own massive ideological gaps, the country faces a fifth election in quick succession. That’s Netanyahu’s preferred playground. He’ll take a stalemate over a defeat every single time.
The lights are still on at Likud headquarters. Netanyahu is still talking. And as long as he’s talking, he’s still in the game.
