PATNA: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a challenging state election in Bihar next month, as frustration over unemployment and distrust in voter rolls threaten to dent his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ahead of several key regional polls.
Voting for 243 assembly seats will take place on November 6 and 11, with results to be announced on November 14.
Bihar, India’s third most populous and one of its poorest states, plays a vital role in shaping national politics. Its chief minister, Nitish Kumar, a seasoned political ally who has switched sides multiple times, currently supports Modi’s NDA but any cracks in this partnership could weaken the coalition before upcoming elections in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.
According to the Vote Vibe agency, the NDA holds only a slight 1.6% lead over the opposition alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. The report notes that this edge is largely due to government welfare initiatives, including a ₹121 billion self-employment subsidy benefiting 12.1 million women.
Women are expected to play a decisive role in the election, as many men migrate from Bihar to other cities for work. “Women make most voting decisions here because men are away,” said Nivedita Jha, an activist from Patna. “Many trust the opposition more because they promise better financial support.”
Meanwhile, complaints over errors in voter lists have deepened public distrust. Jitni Devi, 85, claimed she was wrongly removed from the rolls and declared dead. “People in my village tease me as a dead woman,” she said, lamenting her inability to vote or access her pension. The election commission has yet to respond to her case.
Unemployment remains another pressing concern. Although youth joblessness dropped from 30.9% in 2018–19 to 9.9% in 2023–24, young voters say opportunities remain scarce. “Jobs matter the most to me,” said Babloo Kumar, a first-time voter.
New entrant Jan Suraaj, led by strategist Prashant Kishor, hopes to reshape Bihar’s political landscape. “Joblessness, migration, and farm losses are key issues, and there’s a visible decline in Modi’s popularity,” said Uday Singh, the party’s national president.
In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) exudes confidence. “People have strong faith in Modi’s vision, and the NDA remains strong,” said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan.
As the election nears, Bihar’s voters divided between promises of development and discontent over governance could set the tone for India’s broader political future.
